Our dynamic, interdisciplinary team uses modelling to guide effective and cost-effective responses infectious diseases and global health problems. We are at the forefront of modelling across numerous thematic areas, including:
- COVID-19
- Hepatitis C
- Hepatitis B
- HIV
- Tuberculosis
- Malaria
- Nutrition
- Maternal, Newborn and Child health
- Adolescent Health
- Health systems and service delivery platforms
Our methodological approaches are adapted to the data available and key policy questions being addressed, and includes a variety of:
- Deterministic and stochastic models
- Population-level and agent-based models
- Compartmental and network models
- Costing studies
- Cost-effectiveness analyses
- Cost-benefit and return on investment analyses
- Resource optimisation analyses
- Analyses of large datasets using statistical and machine learning approaches
Discover more about Burnet's modelling work in Episode 7 of our How Science Matters podcast below.
Associate Professor Nick Scott
Dr Nick Scott, BSc (hons), PhD (Mathematics) is the Head of Modelling & Biostatistics at the Burnet Institute, an Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at Monash University, and an NHMRC Emerging Leader Fellow. He leads a team of modellers who work across a number of infectious diseases and public health problems.
Working
Group
Meet the working group. Together, we are translating research into better health, for all.
Optima
Helping decision-makers choose the best public health investments
The primary Consortium partners for developing and applying the Optima suite of tools are Burnet Institute, University College London, University of Bern, and the University of New South Wales.
Optima tools have been developed and applied in close partnership and with funding from global health agencies including the: World Bank, Global Fund, and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. Optima also receives funding from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
Click on the relevant card to explore the apps, or click here to view publications.
Optima Publications
Evaluation of the use of modelling in resource allocation decisions for HIV and TB
BMJ Global Health
A quantitative assessment of the consistency of projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: a model comparison study
BMC Public Health
Public health benefits of shifting from hospital-focused to ambulatory TB care in Eastern Europe: Optimising TB investments in Belarus, the Republic of Moldova, and Romania
PLOS Global Public Health
Sciris: Simplifying scientific software in Python
JOSS
Transmission reduction, health benefits, and upper-bound costs of interventions to improve retention on antiretroviral therapy: a combined analysis of three mathematical models
The Lancet Global Health
Cost-effectiveness of voluntary medical male circumcision for HIV prevention across sub-Saharan Africa: results from five independent models
The Lancet Global Health
Impacts of COVID-19-related service disruptions on TB incidence and deaths in Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Malawi, Mozambique, and Peru: Implications for national TB responses
PLOS Global Public Health
Perspectives on the use of modelling and economic analysis to guide HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa
The Lancet HIV
Opportunities for improved HIV prevention and treatment through budget optimization in Eswatini
PLoS One
Potential health gains in West and Central Africa through savings from lower cost HIV treatment
AIDS
Costs of providing HIV care and optimal allocation of HIV resources in Guyana
PLoS One
Determining the optimal strategy for reopening schools, the impact of test and trace interventions, and the risk of occurrence of a second COVID-19 epidemic wave in the UK: a modelling study
Lancet Child & Adolescent Health
Potential effects of disruption to HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa caused by COVID-19: results from multiple models
[Appendix]
Lancet HIV
Sharing the costs of structural interventions: What can models tell us?
International Journal of Drug Policy, 102702
The influence of constraints on the efficient allocation of resources for HIV prevention
AIDS, 33:1949–1956
Optimal allocation of HIV resources among geographical regions
BMC Public Health, 19:1509
Simulating the entire natural course of HIV infection by extending the basic viral dynamics equations to include declining viral clearance
Pathogens and Disease, Volume 77, Issue 4
A tale of two countries: Progress towards UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets in Botswana and Australia
J Int AIDS Society
Achieving 90-90-90 Human Immunodeficiency (HIV) targets will not be enough to achieve the HIV incidence reduction target in Australia
Clin Infect Dis
Optima attempts to objectively and pragmatically assist countries meet their targets most efficiently and effectively
J Int AIDS Society
Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Two Hospitals of Thailand
J Int AIDS Society
Optima Nutrition: an allocative efficiency tool to reduce childhood stunting by better targeting of nutrition-related interventions
BMC Public Health
How should HIV resources be allocated? Lessons learnt from applying Optima HIV in 23 countries
J Int AIDS Society
Getting it right when budgets are tight: using optimal expansion pathways to prioritize responses to concentrated and mixed HIV epidemics
PLoS One, 12(10):e0185077
Allocative and implementation efficiency in HIV prevention and treatment for people who inject drugs
Int J Drug Policy
GBD 2015 and HIV estimates from the Optima model
The Lancet HIV
Optimizing HIV/AIDS resources in Armenia: increasing ART investment and examining HIV programs for seasonal migrant laborers.
J Int AIDS Society
A no-brainer for ending AIDS: the case for a harm reduction decade
J Int AIDS Society
The funding landscape for HIV in Asia and the Pacific
J Int AIDS Society
Can we know in advance whether models will get it right?
The Lancet Global Health
Scaling up HIV treatment for MSM in Bangkok: what does it take? -- a modelling and costing study
Lancet HIV
The cost-effectiveness of harm reduction
Int J Drug Policy
Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models
[Appendix]
The Lancet Global Health
Cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy expansion strategies in Vietnam
AIDS Patient Care and STDs
Reply to PrEP cost-effectiveness
Clinical Infectious Diseases
Spending of HIV resources in Asia and Eastern Europe: systematic review reveals the need to shift funding allocations towards priority populations
Journal of the International AIDS Society
Understanding the modes of transmission model of new HIV infection and its use in prevention planning
Bulletin of the World Health Organization
How low can you go: The impact of a modestly effective HIV vaccine compared with male circumcision
AIDS
An HIV epidemic is ready to emerge in the Philippines
Journal of the International AIDS Society
What impact might the economic crisis have on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia?
Current HIV Research
Cost-effectiveness of adult circumcision for HIV prevention in men who have sex with men in a resource-rich setting
Journal of Infectious Disease
Mathematical models and health economic aspects of microbicides
Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS
Optima Technical Reports
2023
National Tuberculosis Control Program, USAID STAR, Global Fund, Burnet Institute
Ministry of Health, Center for Health Policies and Studies (PAS Center), Phthisiopneumology Institute “Chiril Draganiuc” /National Tuberculosis Program (NTP), Global Fund, Burnet Institute
Republican Research and Practical Centre for Pulmonology and Tuberculosis, National TB Program, Global Fund, Burnet Institute
2020
Burnet Institute, the World Bank Group
Burnet Institute, the World Bank Group
Burnet Institute, the World Bank Group
2019
National TB Program Mozambique, World Bank, University College London, Burnet Institute
Optimizing investment in Romania's tuberculosis response
Burnet Institute, the World Bank Group
2018
Optimizing investments in Moldova’s tuberculosis response
Burnet Institute, the World Bank Group, IMSP Phthisiopneumology Institute, PAS, Ministry of Health Moldova
2017
Optimizing investments in Belarus’ tuberculosis response
The World Bank Group for the Government of Belarus
2023
National STD/AIDS control program (NSACP), Family Planning Association (FPA)-Sri Lanka, Burnet Institute, Health Equity Matters, UNAIDS
National HIV/AIDS and STI Control Program (NACP), Ministry of Health, Save the Children Bhutan, Burnet Institute, Health Equity Matters, UNAIDS
National Centre for Communicable Diseases, Ministry of Health Youth For Health, Perfect Ladies, Burnet Institute, Health Equity Matters, UNAIDS
National Center for HIV/AIDS, Dermatology and HIV, UNAIDS, Burnet Institute, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria
National Center for HIV/AIDS, Dermatology and HIV, UNAIDS, Burnet Institute (2023)
Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Georgia
2020
Ending the AIDS epidemic in Cambodia (English) (русский)
Improving efficiency of the HIV response in Malawi: Findings from an Optima HIV modelling analysis
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Armenia
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Azerbaijan
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Belarus
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Georgia
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Kazakhstan
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Kyrgyzstan
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Moldova
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Romania
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Tajikistan
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Ukraine
2019
Improving the allocative efficiency of Kosovo’s HIV response
2018
Optimizing Investments in the National HIV Response of Mexico
Optimizando la Inversión del Plan de Respuesta de Colombia al VIH
2017
Allocating HIV Funding Efficiently in Myanmar: Analyses Using the Optima HIV Model
Allocative Efficiency Analysis (HIV) 2015-2030 for Karnataka & Punjab — India
Optimización de las inversiones para la respuesta al VIH en Perú
Optimizing Investments for a Sustainable and Efficient HIV Response in Togo
Optimización de la inversión en VIH/SIDA en Argentina
Calvo N., Lavadenz F., Reporter I., Petravic J., Pantanali C., Lavadenz, C.
2016
Science addressing drugs and HIV: State of the Art: 2nd Scientific Statement
Allocative and implementation efficiency in HIV prevention and treatment for people who inject drugs
2015
Optimizing Investments in Moldova’s HIV Response
Optimizing investments in Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s HIV response
2014
HIV Mathematical Modelling to Support Swaziland's Development of its HIV Investment Case
HIV resource needs, availabilities and gaps across ASEAN countries
Ukraine HIV Program Efficiency Study: Can Ukraine improve value for money in HIV service delivery?
HIV Investment in Armenia: Analysis & Recommendations
Modelling an optimized investment approach for Tajikistan (русский) (English)
2013
HIV Resource Needs, Efficient Allocation and Resource Mobilization for the Republic of Belarus
2012
Assessment of the allocation of HIV funding in Indonesia.
2011
The Papua New Guinea HIV Model: explaining the past, describing the present, and forecasting the future of the HIV epidemic in PNG (PNG HIV Model Reports) (PNG HIV Modeling Report Technical Appendix) (PNG HIV Model Software Manual)
Evaluation of the epidemiological impact of harm reduction programs on HIV in Vietnam
The HIV in Indonesia Model (HIM) (HIM Report) (HIM Software Manual)
2010
Epidemiology and modeling report on HIV/AIDS in the Philippines
2009
2008
Projects
Using mathematical models to generate evidence to support Australia’s COVID-19 responses and prepare for future pandemics
PROJECT
Other Publications
VIEW ALL RESEARCHAkullian A, Akulu R, Aliyu G, Anam F, Guichard AC, Ayles H, Baggaley R, Bansi-Matharu L, Baptiste SL, Bershteyn A, Cambiano V, Carter A, Chotun N, Citron DT, Crowley S, Dalal S, Edun O, Fraser C, Galvani AP, Garnett GP, Glabius R, Godfrey-Faussett P, Grabowski MK, Gray GE, Hargreaves JR, Imai-Eaton JW, Johnson LF, Kaftan D, Kagaayi J, Kataika E, Kilonzo N, Kirungi WL, Korenromp EL, Kouton MH, Abeler-Dörner LL, Mahy M, Mangal TD, Martin-Hughes R, Matsikure S, Meyer-Rath G, Mishra S, Mmelesi M, Mohammed A, Moolla H, Morrison MR, Moyo S, Mudimu E, Mugabe M, Murenga M, Ng'ang'a J, Olaifa Y, Phillips AN, Pickles MREH, Probert WJM, Ramaabya D, Rautenbach SP, Revill P, Shakarishvili A, Sheneberger R, Smith J, Stegling C, Stover J, Tanser F, Taramusi I, Ten Brink D, Whittles LK, Zaidi I
- 20 May 2024