Hepatitis B modelling

Hepatitis B is estimated to cause over 800,000 deaths globally each year. While infection is vaccine preventable and highly effective treatments are available to reduce mortality risks; several barriers currently inhibit coverage.

Our research aims to inform global efforts toward achieving elimination of hepatitis B as a public health threat.

2018 – ongoing

Our research uses mathematical and economic models of hepatitis B to evaluate potential solutions to these barriers, including:

• Use of different vaccine technologies or delivery strategies to overcome barriers associated with birth dose vaccination of home births
• Quantifying returns on investment from achieving hepatitis B elimination targets, including productivity benefits 
• Use of allocative efficiency models (optimisation) to determine context specific investment strategies to maximize impact of spending

• Seaman, C. P., Luong, P., Xiao, Y., Abeysuriya, R., Howell, J., Hellard, M., & Scott, N. (2023). A global investment case for hepatitis B elimination: a modelling study. The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology, 8(10), 932-942.
• Xiao, Y., Hellard, M. E., Thompson, A. J., Seaman, C., Howell, J., & Scott, N. (2023). The cost‐effectiveness of universal hepatitis B screening for reaching WHO diagnosis targets in Australia by 2030. Medical Journal of Australia.
• Seaman, C. P., Kahn, A. L., Kristensen, D., Steinglass, R., Spasenoska, D., Scott, N., & Morgan, C. (2022). Controlled temperature chain for vaccination in low-and middle-income countries: a realist evidence synthesis. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 100(8), 491.
• Seaman, C. P., Mvundura, M., Frivold, C., Morgan, C., Jarrahian, C., Howell, J., ... & Scott, N. (2022). Evaluating the potential cost-effectiveness of microarray patches to expand access to hepatitis B birth dose vaccination in low-and middle-income countries: A modelling study. PLOS Global Public Health, 2(5), e0000394.
• Seaman, C. P., Morgan, C., Howell, J., Xiao, Y., Spearman, C. W., Sonderup, M., ... & Scott, N. (2020). Use of controlled temperature chain and compact prefilled auto-disable devices to reach 2030 hepatitis B birth dose vaccination targets in LMICs: a modelling and cost-optimisation study. The Lancet Global Health, 8(7), e931-e941.
• Xiao, Y., Howell, J., van Gemert, C., Thompson, A. J., Seaman, C. P., McCulloch, K., ... & Hellard, M. E. (2020). Enhancing the hepatitis B care cascade in Australia: A cost‐effectiveness model. Journal of Viral Hepatitis, 27(5), 526-536.
• Scott, N., Palmer, A., Morgan, C., Lesi, O., Spearman, C. W., Sonderup, M., & Hellard, M. (2018). Cost-effectiveness of the controlled temperature chain for the hepatitis B virus birth dose vaccine in various global settings: a modelling study. The lancet global health, 6(6), e659-e667.