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The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections with today's treatment paradigm - volume 2.

Hatzakis A, Chulanov V, Gadano AC, Bergin C, Ben-Ari Z, Mossong J, Schréter I, Baatarkhuu O, Acharya S, Aho I, Anand AC, Andersson MI, Arendt V, Arkkila P, Barclay K, Bessone F, Blach S, Blokhina N, Brunton CR, Choudhuri G, Cisneros L, Croes EA, Dahgwahdorj YA, Dalgard O, Daruich JR, Dashdorj NR, Davaadorj D, de Knegt RJ, de Vree M, Estes C, Flisiak R, Gane E, Gower E, Halota W, Henderson C, Hoffmann P, Hornell J, Houlihan D, Hrusovsky S, Jarčuška P, Kershenobich D, Kostrzewska K, Kristian P, Leshno M, Lurie Y, Mahomed A, Mamonova N, Mendez-Sanchez N, Norris S, Nurmukhametova E, Nymadawa P, Oltman M, Oyunbileg J, Oyunsuren Ts, Papatheodoridis G, Pimenov N, Prabdial-Sing N, Prins M, Radke S, Rakhmanova A, Razavi-Shearer K, Reesink HW, Ridruejo E, Safadi R, Sagalova O, Sanchez Avila JF, Sanduijav R, Saraswat V, Seguin-Devaux C, Shah SR, Shestakova I, Shevaldin A, Shibolet O, Silva MO, Sokolov S, Sonderup M, Souliotis K, Spearman CW, Staub T, Stedman C, Strebkova EA, Struck D, Sypsa V, Tomasiewicz K, Undram L, van der Meer AJ, van Santen D, Veldhuijzen I, Villamil FG, Willemse S, Zuckerman E, Zuure FR, Puri P, Razavi H

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  • Journal Journal of viral hepatitis

  • Published 01 Sep 2015

  • Volume 22 Suppl 1

  • Pagination 26-45

  • DOI 10.1111/jvh.12351

Abstract

Morbidity and mortality attributable to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are increasing in many countries as the infected population ages. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viremic population, as well as estimate the number of new infections and HCV related deaths from 2013 to 2030. Expert consensus was used to determine current treatment levels and outcomes in each country. In most countries, viremic prevalence has already peaked. In every country studied, prevalence begins to decline before 2030, when current treatment levels were held constant. In contrast, cases of advanced liver disease and liver related deaths will continue to increase through 2030 in most countries. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.