Full publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322684919_Impact_of_Climate_Changes_on_Dynamics_of_Dengue_Transmission_in_Sri_Lanka

Dengue is one of the severely damaging vector borne disease to the societies particularly in the tropical and subtropical parts of the world. The transmission of dengue is dynamic and uncertain due to multiple determinants such as climate, geography, human mobility and human behavior. Amongst them, climate factors such as rainfall and temperature are extremely influential to the spread of the disease. The objective of this study to analyse and compare the impact of climate conditions using a fuzzy based model as it is important to identify the control measures to the disease. In this study, Colombo in Sri Lanka and Iquitos in Peru are chosen for the purpose of comparion. It is found that the model is able to predict the risk of dengue in Iquitos at a level of more than 80% accuracy nearly 79% of the time whereas it is around 70% for Colombo where the model is originally trained to. This study can be applied to other regions of the world.