Scenario analysis for programmatic tuberculosis control in Western Province, Papua New Guinea

We are developing a mathematical model to simulate TB transmission and control in the Western Province of Papua New Guinea.

Like many of the countries in the Asia-Pacific with a high burden of TB, the epidemic does not appear to be primarily driven by the HIV and AIDS pandemic in PNG. Therefore, models that are applicable to local conditions are important to guide programmatic responses.

We were commissioned by the Government of Papua New Guinea in conjunction with Australian AID to build a model that would allow for the consideration of various programmatic responses to TB in this Province. We developed a model consistent with current understanding of TB epidemiology and allows for consideration of important issues in local control, including the impact of multidrug-resistant TB, default from treatment, vaccination and reinfection.

This model has been used to simulate each of five possible programmatic responses to TB in the Province. An economic analysis based on the model outputs has been performed to also gauge the cost-effectiveness of these interventions.


Initial report now complete and with Australian AID.


Programmatic management of multidrug-resistant TB is essential to achieving control in Western Province.


Staff Member


  • The Government of Papua New Guinea
  • Australian Aid


Contact Details

For any general enquiries relating to this project, please contact:

Doctor James Trauer

Public Health Physician